Winter Siege — Hearts & Morale Overhaul, Six Strongholds, Win Conditions and Defensive Layout
Day-5 (October) overhaul: hearts 5 regular · 6 warden → 606 total, morale −5/−5/−2 → two chip attacks per target max. Boards harder to clear, whales worth far more, rewards go by alliance at reset.
🆕 Day 5 — hearts +120, morale loss cut sharply (2026-10-11)
An official change announced by the developer. Ton called it the biggest balancing pass he has seen on this mode and rated it positively. The video predates the battle, so how it plays out has to be confirmed this round. The hearts, morale, attacks, strategy and checklist sections below have been revised to match.
| Item | Day 4 (September round) | ✅ Now (October round) |
|---|---|---|
| Regular squad hearts | ❤️ 4 | ❤️ 5 (+1) |
| Warden hearts | ❤️ 5 | ❤️ 6 (+1) |
| Total hearts — 6-stronghold map | 486 | 606 (114×5 + 6×6) |
| Total hearts — 4-stronghold map | — | 604 (116×5 + 4×6) |
| Alliance attacks | 1,200 (60 players × 20) | 1,200 (unchanged) |
| Attacks ÷ hearts | ~2.5× | ~2.0× (1,200 ÷ 606 ≈ 1.98) |
| Morale loss curve | −10 · −10 · then −5 100→90→80→75… | −5 · −5 · then −2 100→95→90→88→86… |
📌 Ton's "+114 hearts across 114 squads" plus his totals of 606 / 604 only add up if wardens also went +1 (5→6); the warden number is back-calculated, not stated. The 60% morale floor and morale resetting to 100% on each heart lost were not mentioned, so they are assumed unchanged.
Morale curve, old vs new
| Successful defences | Old morale | ✅ New morale |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 90% | 95% |
| 2nd | 80% | 90% |
| 3rd | 75% | 88% |
| 4th | 70% | 86% |
| 6th | 60% (floor) | 82% |
| Reaching the floor | 6 defences | 17 (if it is still −2 down to 60% — computed) |
✅ Morale chip: at most 2 attacks per target
Two attacks now take off −10% instead of −20%, so a much weaker player can no longer set up a kill on a heavyweight. Ton: "more than two morale attacks on the same player is just a waste." Push below 90% only when the alliance consciously decides to sacrifice a large number of attacks for that target.
What it means
- Clearing the whole board gets much harder. Ton expects more results to be decided on stars remaining rather than the "first to zero" race
- Mega whales become far more valuable. With so little morale to chip, one whale can soak up two to four marches' worth of attacks → alliances with whales gain a big edge
- Ton's worry: an active, fairly strong alliance with no whales can lose to a less active one with one or two whales simply because it cannot break them
What changes in play
| Who | Before | ✅ Now |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom tier (morale chip) | Keep losing into targets to grind morale | At most 2 per target; anything more is wasted |
| Top tier | Finish softened heavyweights | Choose targets carefully — only ones you can beat at 90% morale |
| Alliance lead | — | For whales that need sub-90% morale, weigh star value vs attack cost |
| Defence | Strength at the back (tier 2 / final) | Same — but a slot held by a whale is worth much more now. Put whales in the final / tier-2 warden slots first |
Map version — 4 vs 6 strongholds (provisional)
- Most alliances get six strongholds (3 · 2 · 1, 20 squads each)
- Alliances playing the event for the first time appear to get a simplified four-stronghold map (3 front + HQ, 30 squads each) — so the Day-4 "4→6 undocumented revamp" may really be a difference by round (or generation). Ton expects this round to settle it
Rewards go by the alliance you are in at reset ★important★
- Rewards are paid at the Saturday → Sunday reset, and you get the rewards of the alliance you are in at that moment, not the one you fought for (same as Alliance Championship)
- If you lost, you can move to a winning alliance before reset for better rewards — compare your league's losing reward vs their league's winning reward
- You cannot see from inside another alliance whether it won. Someone who fought in that battle has to tell you (Ton's alliance couldn't confirm, didn't move, and regretted it)
- Farm-alliance registration: some alliances also register a farm alliance; if it is in the state's top 20 it can enter, and drawing an inactive opponent can bring in winner rewards with almost no play — a reward backup
Schedule if you play Alliance Showdown in another alliance
| When (UTC) | Where you need to be |
|---|---|
| Sunday 23:00 | Alliance Showdown registration closes — be in the alliance you will play Showdown with (possibly a farm alliance) |
| By Tuesday 23:00 | Back in your main alliance — Winter Siege registration closes (Alliance Championship too) |
| Before the Thursday lock | Re-register both marches — leaving the alliance clears them |
🆕 Day 4 — the board is now six strongholds (2026-09-17)
🔄 Hearts changed again on Day 5 (10-11) — 5 regular, 6 warden, 606 total. The heart figures below are the September record, and the 4-vs-6 map may be a difference by round rather than a revamp (see the Day-5 box above).
An undocumented change — not in the patch notes, the hotfixes or the in-game rules. Ton spotted it in the registration window, and the video was recorded the night before battle, so the unlock path still needs confirming on battle day. The map, stars, hearts, attacks and lanes sections below have been revised to match.
| Item | Before (Days 1–3) | ✅ Now |
|---|---|---|
| Strongholds | 4 (3 front + HQ) | 6 (3 tier-1 + 2 tier-2 + 1 final) |
| Squads per stronghold | 30 | 20 |
| Total slots | 120 | 120 (unchanged → still the top ~60) |
| Wardens | 4 | 6 (+2) |
| Regular squad hearts | ❤️ 3 | ❤️ 4 |
| Warden hearts | ❤️ 5 | ❤️ 5 (unchanged) |
| Total hearts (full board) | 368 | 486 (+118) |
| Attack attempts | 10 per march | unchanged — no extra attacks |
📌 Ton says "+116" in the video (mental maths past midnight). Recomputed: 114×4 + 6×5 = 486 vs the old 116×3 + 4×5 = 368 — +118. Each stronghold holds only 20 squads so it falls faster, but with more strongholds and more hearts, clearing the whole board costs more attacks.
The new map
In-game names: tier 1 = Primitive (#4–6), tier 2 = Advanced (#2–3, new), final = #1. The final stronghold's name is unclear in the captions. The connecting paths are as Ton described them from his screen.
Unlock rule — two readings ⚠️ confirm on battle day
The in-game text: "strongholds can only be attacked in a set order; all defending squads in the current stronghold must be defeated before you can attack the next connected stronghold" — which is ambiguous.
| Reading | What it means | Result |
|---|---|---|
| A (Ton's assumption) | As last cycle, clearing one stronghold opens the connected next one. Clearing either tier-2 stronghold opens the final | Clearing tier-1 centre opens both tier-2 strongholds → tier-1 left/right are optional |
| B (unconfirmed) | The final only opens once both tier-2 strongholds (left and right paths) are cleared | You have to push through nearly every tier in order |
Ton found no sign of a rule change in the hotfixes or docs, so he assumes reading A. Either way the conclusion is the same — stack your strongest at the back (tier 2 and final).
Stars and hearts by tier (full board, computed)
| Tier | Strongholds | Regular / warden | Stars each | Tier total | Share | Hearts each |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 (Primitive) | 3 | ⭐1 / ⭐2 | 21 | 63 | 30% | 81 |
| Tier 2 (Advanced) | 2 | ⭐2 / ⭐4 | 42 | 84 | 40% | 81 |
| Final | 1 | ⭐3 / ⭐6 | 63 | 63 | 30% | 81 |
| Total | 6 | 210 | 486 |
Star values are from Ton; totals and shares are computed from them. One surviving regular squad is worth ⭐3 in the final stronghold and ⭐1 in tier 1.
Ton's defensive layout (provisional)
| Where | Who | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Tier-1 left/right | The weakest of the weak — effectively a sacrificial lane | Fewest stars, and under reading A the enemy doesn't even need them |
| Tier-1 centre | Weak squads, but not the very weakest | The gate to both tier-2 strongholds — burn the enemy's mid-tier attacks here |
| Tier 2 | Strong main marches | ⭐2/⭐4, the most stars of any tier in total |
| Final | Your strongest main marches + a solid warden | ⭐3/⭐6, and the enemy only reaches it after spending the most attacks |
- Wardens have more hearts, so they soak attacks → it doesn't have to be anyone's main march; a strong player's second march works. Put main marches in the regular tier-2/final slots.
- Very strong players up front don't buy much — they waste enemy attacks early, but hold few stars.
- Why stack the back ① the enemy's weaker members burn attacks on your tier 1. ② Killing your strong squads at the back needs morale chip first (then −10, −10, −5…; from Day 5 −5, −5, −2…) — and the weak attacks meant for that are spent up front. ③ More hearts means less attack slack (this was computed at the time as "232 → 114" using 600 total attacks; per Day 5 the total is 1,200 — attacks ÷ hearts ~3.3× → 2.5×), but Ton still expects boards to fall in a fair matchup → if you're going to be cleared, minimise the stars they can take by stacking strength where the stars are.
Ton's attack plan — when neither side is likely to clear
Then push tier 2 → final and remove as many stars as you can
Pick up only the easy squads
If they parked strong squads on tier-1 left/right, leave them alone
⚠️ Provisional — the layout just changed, the best answer won't be found immediately, and it depends on how your opponent sets up. Ton himself calls it "not the clearest strategy". For what it's worth, his alliance's opponent this cycle was ~3B power ahead not long ago and is much closer now — possibly a sign matchmaking is settling.
🆕 Win-condition rule change — user-confirmed (2026-09-16)
The Day-2 three-step check (stars → power → who got there first) has changed again. The current rule:
| Order | Criterion |
|---|---|
| 1st | Whoever brings the enemy's stars to 0 first wins (a race — not the star count at the end, but who hit 0 first) |
| 2nd | If neither side hits 0 → more stars remaining wins |
| 3rd | Equal stars → higher total power of surviving squads wins |
| 4th | Equal power too → whoever took longer to drop to that star count (held out longer) wins |
| Special | Both sides start with equal stars and end unchanged from the start (=no real progress) → both sides lose |
⚠️ The 4th check is the opposite of the Day-2 version. Day 2 said "whoever gets there first wins" — the current rule says whoever holds out longer wins: endurance instead of speed.
⚠️ The 1st check changed fundamentally too. Day 2 said "0:0 means the higher-power side wins" — the current rule is a race to zero the opponent first. The "Win condition — a three-step check" section below is now a historical record of the Day-2 rule — for reference only.
🆕 How to think about registration ratios (2026-09-16)
The new video isn't about new numbers — it's about why you use the ratio you use. The 48/4/48 and 60/40 figures further down aren't the point in themselves; understanding why those numbers came out that way is what lets you adapt to a different generation or roster.
- There is no "universal ratio." The best split depends on your generation, your heroes, and your gear — copying a top player's ratio isn't a substitute for testing it on your own account.
- The real constraint is gear scarcity. Most accounts don't have a second full set, but registration is two marches — so filling the empty troop type with a hero that needs no gear is the whole logic behind the archer ratio (Mia as an ungeared lancer) and the lancer ratio (an all-class-buff archer hero, ungeared).
- The selection rule is "does the skill buff every troop type?" Heroes like Zinman, Alonso, Greg and Bradley buff all troop types, so they're worth a slot even with zero troops of their own class. A hero like Norah or Gordon, whose skill only buffs their own class, does nothing in a march that has none of that troop.
- Pick your "core three" heroes first. Take your single strongest infantry, lancer, and archer, then build two marches around them — that's the whole method. It doesn't have to be "one archer ratio + one lancer ratio"; a lancer-heavy account can register two lancer ratios.
- There's a Discord spreadsheet that works out additive vs. multiplicative skill stacking in detail, but most players don't need to go that deep — pick your core three and validate with the bounty-farm test below.
📌 This is background reasoning for the 48/4/48 / 60/40 numbers further down, not a new number — the specific ratios and the Day-2 question mark still stand.
🆕 Day-2 update — what Day 1 got wrong (2026-08-22)
After one battle cycle, several core items from the Day-1 write-up turned out to be wrong.
| Item | What Day 1 said | ✅ Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Win condition | "most stars remaining wins" (one tiebreak only) | Three-step check — stars → power → who got there first. Equal stars means the stronger alliance wins. |
| Stronghold unlock | must clear all three front strongholds to reach the HQ | Clearing just one front stronghold opens the HQ |
| Morale floor | 35% or below (outside sources) | 60% is the floor — stat reduction caps at −40% |
| Star values | same in every stronghold | HQ stars are worth far more (⚠️ provisional) |
| Attack attempts | Ton "20" vs outside "3+7" — contradictory | 10 per march = 20 per player — both were right |
The win condition is the big one. If both sides clear each other's board the score is 0:0, and then the higher-power alliance wins. And in practice clearing a board is easier than expected. The net effect: the weaker alliance loses by default — which is exactly what players are upset about.
Bottom line — Alliance Championship in fortress form. 3 tier-1 → 2 tier-2 → 1 final stronghold (Day-4 revamp), 20 squads each, 2 marches per player → only the top ~60 play. On defence, stack strength at the back where the stars are; on offence, break tier-1 centre and strip the back tiers. Individually: ① register both marches before the Thursday lock, ② test your ratios first, ③ gear on the right heroes before the lock. As an alliance: judge your odds the moment matchmaking resolves on Tuesday — ahead on power, clear the board; behind, protect stars. From Day 5, 606 hearts and a −5/−5/−2 morale curve make defence much stronger: expect more stars-remaining finishes and an edge for alliances with whales — morale chip is two attacks per target, max.
🗓️ Eligibility and schedule lock Thursday, settle Sunday reset
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Alliances | Only the top 20 by power in the state |
| Generation | Gen 3 and up |
| Frequency | Monthly, alongside Alliance Showdown week |
| Slots | 6 strongholds × 20 squads = 120 (was 4 × 30) · 2 marches each → top ~60 players |
| Preview / register | Monday – Tuesday |
| Matchmaking | Tuesday 23:00–24:00 UTC |
| Preparation | Wednesday – Thursday |
| 🔒 Lock | Thursday 24:00 UTC — squads, heroes, troops, bonuses frozen |
| Scouting | Friday (mission: scout ×2) |
| Battle | Saturday, 24 hours (mission: attack ×10) |
| Final settlement | Saturday → Sunday reset (midnight) |
| Rewards | Same reset — by the alliance you are in at reset (not the one you fought for, Day 5) |
💡 Lost? You can move to a winning alliance before reset — but you can't see from outside whether it won, so confirm with someone who fought. 📅 Playing Alliance Showdown elsewhere: be in that alliance at Sunday 23:00 UTC → back in your main alliance by Tuesday 23:00 UTC → re-register before the Thursday lock.
⚠️ Leaving the alliance wipes your registration
Anyone hopping alliances for Alliance Showdown rewards must re-register on return. If the red dot is back on "Go Prepare", you are not registered any more.
🏆 Win condition — how the rule evolved ⚠️ historical record below — current rule is in the box above
Poorly explained in-game, and it has been changed by patches multiple times.
| Version | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 (~08-20) | Most stars remaining wins | — | — |
| Day 2 (08-22) | Most stars remaining wins | Equal → higher power wins | Equal → whoever got there first wins |
| Current (09-16) | Zero the enemy's stars first → win (a race) | Neither hits 0 → more stars remaining | Equal → power, still equal → whoever held out longer |
💥 (Day-2 record) Why this was a problem — largely resolved by the current rule
- Under the Day-2 rule, both sides clearing each other meant 0 stars : 0 stars → power decides → stronger side wins, no exceptions
- And clearing a board is not hard. Ton's alliance wiped one enemy stronghold in under six hours
- Conclusion at the time — unless the weaker side can build a star lead, it loses by default
- Under the current rule this is now a race to zero the opponent first, so it's no longer an automatic win for the stronger side — though the stronger side still tends to win that race too.
🚩 A "Win" banner during the battle is not final. The check running again at the Sunday reset is still true under the current rule.
(Day-2 record) Is there a better rule? — Ton's take
| Proposal | Problem |
|---|---|
| Equal stars → weaker side wins | Winning every fight and still losing feels just as unfair from the other chair |
| Equal stars → whoever cleared first | Rewards alliances whose members are awake at reset — a timezone lottery |
| Ton's proposal: rebalance attack vs defence | Make clearing a board genuinely hard so the star race actually happens |
📌 The current rule's "zero the enemy's stars first, and you win" echoes the second proposal above — except it's now the always-on 1st check, not just a tiebreak for equal stars.
🗺️ Map — how strongholds unlock Day-4 revamp
- All three tier-1 strongholds are open when battle starts. Tier-1 centre connects to both tier-2 strongholds; left and right connect only to their own side.
- Ton's assumption (reading A): clearing a stronghold opens the connected next one, and clearing either tier-2 opens the final (reading B — both tier-2 needed — is possible; confirm on battle day)
- Capacity is 20 squads (was 30). Beyond that, the weakest by power are pushed out as "squad rejected" and never fight.
- A stronghold with no garrison gets filled by auto-generated squads.
✅ Strategic upshot — tier-1 centre is the key gate
Under reading A the centre alone opens both tier-2 strongholds, which makes tier-1 left/right the most optional strongholds on the board — on offence take only their easy squads; on defence put your weakest there.
🔄 (Day 5) The four-stronghold map may be a simplified version for first-time alliances. Ton says most get six, while alliances on their first round seem to get four (3 front + HQ, 30 each) — possibly tied to generation; this round should confirm.
📜 (Days 1–3 layout, for the record) 3 front strongholds + HQ, 30 squads each. Clearing any one front stronghold opened the HQ, so the advice then was "pick the weakest front stronghold and focus it".
⭐ Stars and ❤️ Hearts
Star values differ by tier ✅ confirmed on Day 4
| Location | Regular squad | Warden | Stars per full stronghold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 (3 strongholds) | ⭐ 1 | ⭐ 2 | 21 |
| Tier 2 (2 strongholds) | ⭐ 2 | ⭐ 4 | 42 |
| Final (1 stronghold) | ⭐ 3 | ⭐ 6 | 63 |
Full board: 210 stars — tier 1 63 (30%) · tier 2 84 (40%) · final 63 (30%). A final-stronghold squad is worth 3× a tier-1 squad, and tier 2 holds the most stars of any tier. (The old front 1/2 · HQ 3/6 values turn out to be the same scheme.)
So your very best belong at the back (tier 2 and final). Tier-1 left/right can be a sacrificial lane — see the Day-4 defensive layout above.
Hearts (lives) changed again on Day 5
| Squad | Days 1–3 | Day 4 (Sept) | ✅ Day 5 (Oct~) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular garrison squad | ❤️ 3 | ❤️ 4 | ❤️ 5 |
| Warden squad | ❤️ 5 | ❤️ 5 | ❤️ 6 (back-calculated) |
| Wardens | 4 | 6 | 6 (4 on the four-stronghold map) |
| Total hearts (full board) | 368 | 486 | 606 (604 on the four-stronghold map) |
A squad that loses all hearts is removed — but every heart lost resets morale to 100%. See below.
📉 Morale ★curve changed on Day 5★
Morale % is stat %. At 90% morale that squad fights with 90% of its stats (e.g. 1,000 lethality → 900).
✅ Current curve Day 5, October round onward
| Successful defences | Drop | Morale |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | −5%p | 95% |
| 2nd | −5%p | 90% ← practical limit |
| 3rd onward | −2%p each | 88 → 86 → 84 → 82 → 80 … |
| Floor | 60% (assumed) | 17 defences to reach it (computed) — effectively unreachable |
Two chip attacks (−10%) per target is the practical limit. From the third on, each attack only takes −2%p.
(Days 1–4 record) Old curve
| Successful defences | Drop | Morale |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | −10%p | 90% |
| 2nd | −10%p | 80% |
| 3rd onward | −5%p each | 75 → 70 → 65 → 60% |
| Floor | 60% | goes no lower → stat reduction caps at −40% (the old curve hit 80% after just two attacks, so far weaker players could finish heavyweights) |
The "35% floor" I wrote on Day 1 from outside sources was wrong.
⚠️ Morale resets to 100% — you cannot "soften then kill"
Losing one heart snaps morale straight back to 100%. To remove a strong squad you have to repeat the soften → kill cycle once per heart.
Old (Day 4): (2 chip → 80% + 1 kill) × 5 hearts ≈ 15 attacks
Now (Day 5): (2 chip → 90% + 1 kill) × 6 hearts ≈ 18 attacks — and only if you can win at 90% morale (computed)
Under the old numbers Ton put it as "ten attacks to weaken, five to strip the hearts". From Day 5, with more hearts and only 10% of morale to chip, one strong player can soak up two to four marches' worth of attacks (Ton).
🚩 The unkillable-squad problem — far more common from Day 5
Under the Day-5 curve the practical floor is 90% (−10%), so any squad more than ~10% stronger than its attackers is effectively unkillable — Ton's "mega whale" problem.
Old-curve case reported on Ton's Discord — if an enemy squad still beats you at 60% morale (−40% stats), that squad is permanently unkillable. Morale cannot drop further, so no amount of attacking gets through.
One such squad means that stronghold never reaches zero stars. Five or six stars survive, and if your side gets cleared → guaranteed loss. Ton's only description for it: bad matchmaking and bad luck.
🎯 Attack attempts — the numbers, settled
| Unit | Attempts |
|---|---|
| Per march | 10 |
| Per player (2 marches) | 20 |
| Per alliance (60 players, full) | 1,200 (corrected per Ton on Day 5 — the old 600 assumed 30 players) |
- 3 granted at reset, then roughly 1 every 2 hours.
- Regeneration finishes around the first 14 hours → you have the remaining 10 hours to spend 10 attacks. Start late and you simply waste them.
Attack supply vs heart supply based on 1,200 total attacks (60 players × 20)
| Item | Days 1–3 | Day 4 (Sept) | ✅ Day 5 (Oct~) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enemy hearts to remove | 368 | 486 | 606 |
| Attacks ÷ hearts | ~3.3× | ~2.5× (Ton) | ~2.0× (Ton: 1.98) |
| Slack (attacks − hearts) | 832 | 714 | 594 |
📌 Earlier versions of this guide used 600 total attacks (a 30-player figure) and computed slack as "232 → 114". With 60 players the total is 1,200 — Ton himself said on Day 5 that attacks used to be ~2.5× hearts and are now ~2×. That slack has to cover every lost attack and every morale chip, and with chip efficiency halved Ton expects boards to be much harder to clear and more results to come down to stars remaining.
⚔️ Battle strategy — dividing the roles
Pick your scenario first the moment matchmaking resolves
| Situation | Goal | Play |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead on power | Full clear | Go for zeroing the enemy's stars first (the 1st check) — the most reliable path to a win |
| Behind on power | Protect stars | You lose the clearing race for certain. Pick off their cheap stars and defend your own — if they can't hit 0 either, it falls to the 2nd (stars) and 3rd (power) checks |
⚠️ Attempting a full clear from behind is the worst option available. You fail to clear, your own board falls, and the enemy zeroes you first — an automatic loss.
⚠️ Current rule (2026-09-16): the win condition is now a "zero them first" race, so speed matters even when you're ahead on power.
Defensive layout — stack the back Day 4
| Where | Who |
|---|---|
| Tier-1 left/right | Weakest (sacrificial lane) |
| Tier-1 centre | Weak, but not the very weakest |
| Tier 2 | Strong main marches |
| Final | Strongest main marches + a solid warden (a strong player's second march is fine) |
Attack order — break tier-1 centre → tier 2 → strip as many stars as possible from the final. Take only easy squads from tier-1 sides and ignore strong ones. Reasoning in the Day-4 box above.
Roles by strength tier
Morale chip duty — but at most 2 attacks per target (−5/−5%p). From the third hit it is −2%p, a waste (Day 5). Spend the rest on weak squads you can actually beat.
Hunt targets slightly weaker than you and close them out. Reaching upward burns attempts for nothing.
Choose targets carefully. Finish heavyweights you can beat at 90% morale and, on defence, hold the final and tier-2 strongholds.
For whales that can only be beaten below 90% morale, weigh star value vs attack cost and decide deliberately (Day 5).
Tip: Use markers to publish an attack order per stronghold, and split the roster into numbered teams with assigned targets so attacks don't scatter.
🎲 Outcomes swing wildly
Ton's own measurements, between similarly powered marches:
- One fight won with 10–15% of his troops left
- Another lost with the enemy holding 60%+ of theirs
That is a ~75-point spread at the same power level. With this many hero skills interacting, the variance is far higher than Labyran or IWL.
Practical read — a target you "think" you beat is a coin flip. Send attacks at fights you are sure of, and hand the marginal ones to the morale-chip crew.
🏹 Ratios and heroes no event-specific ratio exists
Whatever performs in Labyran, Gaia's Heart, Land of the Brave and IWL performs here.
Gen 3 – 5
| March | Ratio (inf/lancer/marks) | Heroes |
|---|---|---|
| March 1 | 50 / 20 / 30 | your best three |
| March 2 | 50 / 20 / 30 | next best three |
- Variants: 60/10/30 · 45/10/45 — go with whatever your own testing favours
- Avoid: blue (rare) heroes and anything without a combat Expedition skill. Epics run one utility + one combat skill and lose out once you have legendaries
- Favour: Zinman, Alonso, Greg — skills that buff all troop types
Gen 5 and up — marksman ratio + lancer ratio ⚠️ questioned on Day 2
| March | Ratio | Heroes | Gear needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 1 marksman ratio | 48 / 4 / 48 | best marksman + best infantry + Mia | Primary set on the infantry and marksman heroes |
| March 2 lancer ratio | 60 / 40 / 0 | best lancer + second infantry + an all-troop-buff marksman hero | Second infantry set + primary lancer set the marksman hero needs no gear |
Why this pairing — the two marches never compete for gear. With zero marksman troops in a lancer ratio there is no reason to gear that hero at all. It squeezes full value from a limited number of maxed sets.
⚠️ Day-2 caveat — a question mark over 60/40
Reviewing a handful of live battle reports, Ton found the 60/40 lancer ratio performing worse than expected and flagged it. His own reports are unusable — he registered his marksman march with his second-string gear by mistake. Needs re-testing next cycle.
Marksman hero priority for the 60/40 march
| # | Hero | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley (G7) | all three skills buff every troop type |
| 2 | Greg (G3) | same — all-troop buffs |
| 3 | Alonso (G2) | same — all-troop buffs |
| 4 | Zinman (G1) | fallback |
A "marksman attack +x%" skill does nothing with zero marksman troops on the field.
Whales — 50/20/30 on both marches may be better. Ton sees that style appearing around Gen 15–16; at Gen 11–12 the Mia/Molly marksman ratio and the Bradley lancer ratio still win.
Testing ratios — the free bounty loop
Find a bounty monster out on the map.
Send the march you want to measure.
Lose, and the returning march refunds its stamina → loop it for free.
As shown above, a single result tells you nothing.
Gaia's Heart, Land of the Brave, Labyran, IWL. During the event, sparring attacks work too.
🔧 What applies and what doesn't
❌ Does NOT apply
- Hero exclusive gear (widget) skills — the text at the bottom of the widget card
- Territory bonuses
- State position / President skills — titles included
- City bonuses — gem-bought +10% / +20% attack and friends
- Frostdragon Tyrant buffs
- Combat buff items
✅ Does apply
- Flat widget stats — health and lethality pass through
- Pet skills — auto-activated
- Hero skills — the Expedition set
- Hero gear, charms, chief gear, troop research — frozen at the end of Preparation
📌 The snapshot is taken at the end of Preparation — Thursday 24:00 UTC
Not the moment you press register. Up to the lock you can keep swapping gear, heroes and troops; after it, nothing you change counts.
Ton himself lost a whole week to gear left on the wrong hero at lock time. Check once at registration, and again on Thursday.
🧭 R4/R5 — building the lanes
- Strongholds 1–6 are each auto-sorted by power in Manage Squads
- Pile more than capacity (20, was 30) into one and the overflow is benched → it is common to find someone strong sitting out while a weaker squad plays elsewhere. Sweep the list right after registration closes
- Batch adjust moves several at once — same as Championship lane building
- Invite from "members not ready", but chase only the people who'd land in the top 60
- Allocation rule (revised Day 4): make sure your very best are in the final (⭐3/6) and tier 2 (⭐2/4). Weakest on tier-1 left/right; tier-1 centre is the gate to both tier-2 strongholds, so one step above the weakest. Fill the six warden seats with sturdy squads — their extra hearts soak attacks
- (Day-2 rule, for the record: best in the HQ, the rest spread evenly over the three front strongholds — for the 4-stronghold layout)
Practical trick — dump everyone into one stronghold first, then deal them out strongest-first: final → tier 2 → tier-1 centre → tier-1 sides.
📊 Using the battle reports
- Each stronghold's battle record shows both attack and defence reports — who fought with what ratio and how it went
- There are separate sparring attacks — use them for ratio testing
- ⚠️ Reports appear to be kept for only ~9 hours. The cutoff is by time, not by count → review them live during the battle if you want the data
What to look for: the ratio used (48/4/48 or 60/40) · whether gear was actually equipped · what the morale % was — it changes how you read a win or loss.
⚠️ Known problem — matchmaking imbalance
Ton flagged "some people have been very unfairly matched" on both days.
| # | Structural cause |
|---|---|
| ① | The matching key and the deciding factor are different axes. The official rule groups by server progress then pairs on similar Star Rating — but Star Rating is a cumulative record (+1 win / −1 loss), not power. On the first cycle everyone started level, making it effectively random within a group |
| ② | The win condition turns a power gap directly into the result — under Day 2 that was the "power" check; under the current rule (09-16) it's the "zero them first" race |
| ③ | One unkillable squad makes a clear impossible |
| ④ | More attacks than hearts makes clearing easy → the star race never happens (Day 4 hearts 368→486 and Day 5 →606 with morale loss halved ease this a lot — attacks ÷ hearts 3.3× → 2.0×) |
| ⑥ | (New on Day 5) The whale gap — with only 10% of morale to chip, an active mid-strength alliance may be unable to break a less active one with one or two whales |
| ⑤ | Byes — an odd group size decides a result with no battle at all |
Ton's outlook — Alliance Showdown matchmaking was also terrible at launch; he expects this to settle as Star Ratings accumulate. But it runs monthly, so sorting will take months — and until then it keeps pushing players toward "just join the strongest alliance."
✅ Personal checklist
- Confirm your alliance is in the state's top 20
- Know the Day-5 numbers: hearts 5 regular · 6 warden (606 total), morale −5/−5/−2 → two chip attacks per target, max
- Played Alliance Showdown elsewhere? Be back in your main alliance by Tuesday 23:00 UTC
- Confirm the six-stronghold layout (3 tier-1 · 2 tier-2 · 1 final, 20 squads each) — and on battle day, which unlock path (reading A/B) applies
- Check which tier your marches landed in (strong players belong in tier 2 / final)
- Check the Tuesday matchmaking result → decide ahead or behind
- Before the Thursday lock, move gear onto the right hero in each march
- Register both marches
- Left and rejoined the alliance? Verify you are still registered
- Everything finalised before Thursday 24:00 UTC
- Friday: scout ×2 mission
- Saturday: start early — regeneration ends in the first 14 hours, so a late start throws attempts away
- Saturday: spend all 20 attempts (10 per march)
- Use sparring to confirm your ratio before picking real targets
- Lost? Consider moving to a winning alliance before reset — confirm the win with someone who fought in it
Source: Ton (TontonYouTube) — Day 1 "registration & ratios" (2026-08-20) + Day 2 "battle phase & win conditions" (2026-08-22) + Day 3 "how to think about ratios" (2026-09-16) + Day 4 "six-stronghold revamp & defensive layout" (2026-09-17, video) + Day 5 "hearts & morale overhaul" (2026-10-11, video) · win-condition change per user confirmation (2026-09-16) · cross-checked against the official Winter Siege help centre section
Compiled 2026-10-11 · ⚠️ provisional (win conditions, stronghold layout, hearts and morale have all changed before)