Winter Siege — Win Conditions, Battle Strategy and the Matchmaking Problem
Revised after the first battle. The win check is three steps — stars, then power — so equal stars means the stronger alliance wins. One front stronghold opens the HQ, and morale floors at 60%.
🆕 Day-2 update — what Day 1 got wrong (2026-08-22)
After one battle cycle, several core items from the Day-1 write-up turned out to be wrong.
| Item | What Day 1 said | ✅ Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Win condition | "most stars remaining wins" (one tiebreak only) | Three-step check — stars → power → who got there first. Equal stars means the stronger alliance wins. |
| Stronghold unlock | must clear all three front strongholds to reach the HQ | Clearing just one front stronghold opens the HQ |
| Morale floor | 35% or below (outside sources) | 60% is the floor — stat reduction caps at −40% |
| Star values | same in every stronghold | HQ stars are worth far more (⚠️ provisional) |
| Attack attempts | Ton "20" vs outside "3+7" — contradictory | 10 per march = 20 per player — both were right |
The win condition is the big one. If both sides clear each other's board the score is 0:0, and then the higher-power alliance wins. And in practice clearing a board is easier than expected. The net effect: the weaker alliance loses by default — which is exactly what players are upset about.
Bottom line — Alliance Championship in fortress form. Three front strongholds plus an HQ, 30 squads each, 2 marches per player → only the top ~60 play. Individually: ① register both marches before the Thursday lock, ② test your ratios first, ③ gear on the right heroes before the lock. As an alliance: judge your odds the moment matchmaking resolves on Tuesday — ahead on power, clear the board; behind, protect stars.
🗓️ Eligibility and schedule lock Thursday, settle Sunday reset
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Alliances | Only the top 20 by power in the state |
| Generation | Gen 3 and up |
| Frequency | Monthly, alongside Alliance Showdown week |
| Slots | 4 strongholds × 30 squads = 120 · 2 marches each → top ~60 players |
| Preview / register | Monday – Tuesday |
| Matchmaking | Tuesday 23:00–24:00 UTC |
| Preparation | Wednesday – Thursday |
| 🔒 Lock | Thursday 24:00 UTC — squads, heroes, troops, bonuses frozen |
| Scouting | Friday (mission: scout ×2) |
| Battle | Saturday, 24 hours (mission: attack ×10) |
| Final settlement | Saturday → Sunday reset (midnight) |
⚠️ Leaving the alliance wipes your registration
Anyone hopping alliances for Alliance Showdown rewards must re-register on return. If the red dot is back on "Go Prepare", you are not registered any more.
🏆 Win condition — a three-step check ★the big Day-2 change★
Poorly explained in-game, and changed by a hotfix on the Monday of the event week.
| Order | Criterion |
|---|---|
| 1st | Most stars remaining wins |
| 2nd | Equal stars → higher power wins |
| 3rd | Identical power → whoever reached that star count first wins |
💥 Why this is a problem
- Both sides clear each other → 0 stars : 0 stars → 2nd check = power → stronger side wins
- Both sides hold 5 stars → 5 : 5 → stronger side wins again
- And clearing a board is not hard. Ton's alliance wiped one enemy stronghold in under six hours
- Conclusion — unless the weaker side can build a star lead, it loses by default
🚩 A "Win" banner during the battle is not final. Ton's alliance saw the win flag the moment they broke the enemy HQ — but they still had 5 stars of their own standing on low morale, and the result could still flip if the enemy cleared them. The check runs again at the Sunday reset.
Is there a better rule? — Ton's take
| Proposal | Problem |
|---|---|
| Equal stars → weaker side wins | Winning every fight and still losing feels just as unfair from the other chair |
| Equal stars → whoever cleared first | Rewards alliances whose members are awake at reset — a timezone lottery |
| Ton's proposal: rebalance attack vs defence | Make clearing a board genuinely hard so the star race actually happens |
🗺️ Map — how strongholds unlock Day-1 correction
- All three front strongholds are open the moment battle starts.
- Clearing just one of them opens the HQ. The in-game rules read like sequential unlocking, but that is not how it works.
- Capacity is 30 squads. From the 31st on, the weakest by power are pushed out as "squad rejected" and never fight.
- A stronghold with no garrison gets filled by auto-generated squads.
✅ Strategic upshot — pick the weakest stronghold and focus it
Judge it from the average power of its roster, or from how many hard-to-kill players sit in it. Markers/labels let you push an attack order (1→2→3) out to the alliance.
⭐ Stars and ❤️ Hearts
Star values differ by stronghold ⚠️ provisional — needs confirming next cycle
| Location | Regular squad | Warden |
|---|---|---|
| Front strongholds (1–3) | ⭐ 1 | ⭐ 2 |
| HQ (stronghold 4) | ⭐ 3 | ⭐ 6 |
HQ stars are worth 3×. At full capacity a front stronghold is 31 stars; the HQ is in the 90s.
So your very best squads belong in the HQ. This largely settles the Day-1 "concentrate or spread" question — HQ first.
Hearts (lives)
| Squad | Hearts |
|---|---|
| Regular garrison squad | ❤️ 3 |
| Warden squad | ❤️ 5 |
A squad that loses all hearts is removed — but every heart lost resets morale to 100%. See below.
📉 Morale — Ton's measurements ★Day-1 numbers corrected★
Morale % is stat %. At 90% morale that squad fights with 90% of its stats.
| Successful defences | Drop | Morale |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | −10%p | 90% |
| 2nd | −10%p | 80% |
| 3rd onward | −5%p each | 75 → 70 → 65 → 60% |
| Floor | 60% | goes no lower → stat reduction caps at −40% |
The "35% floor" I wrote on Day 1 from outside sources was wrong.
⚠️ Morale resets to 100% — you cannot "soften then kill"
Losing one heart snaps morale straight back to 100%. To remove a strong squad you have to repeat the soften → kill cycle once per heart.
Removing one warden (5 hearts) = (2 softening attacks + 1 kill) × 5 ≈ 15 attacks
Ton puts it as "ten attacks to weaken, five to strip the hearts" — one squad can eat the entire attack budget of several top players.
🚩 The unkillable-squad problem
Reported on Ton's Discord — if an enemy squad still beats you at 60% morale (−40% stats), that squad is permanently unkillable. Morale cannot drop further, so no amount of attacking gets through.
One such squad means that stronghold never reaches zero stars. Five or six stars survive, and if your side gets cleared → guaranteed loss. Ton's only description for it: bad matchmaking and bad luck.
🎯 Attack attempts — the numbers, settled
| Unit | Attempts |
|---|---|
| Per march | 10 |
| Per player (2 marches) | 20 |
| Per alliance (30 players) | ~600 |
- 3 granted at reset, then roughly 1 every 2 hours.
- Regeneration finishes around the first 14 hours → you have the remaining 10 hours to spend 10 attacks. Start late and you simply waste them.
Attack supply vs heart supply Ton's Discord log
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Alliance attacks available | 600 |
| Enemy hearts to remove | 368 (~92 per stronghold) |
| Slack | roughly 40% more attacks than hearts |
So 40% of your attacks can miss or be spent purely on morale chip and you still clear. That slack is the numeric reason boards fall easily — and the reason weaker alliances cannot hold stars. Ton reads the balance as tilted too far toward the attacker.
⚔️ Battle strategy — dividing the roles
Pick your scenario first the moment matchmaking resolves
| Situation | Goal | Play |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead on power | Full clear | Drive it to 0:0 and take the 2nd check (power) — the most reliable path to a win |
| Behind on power | Protect stars | You lose the clearing race for certain. Pick off their cheap stars and defend your own |
⚠️ Attempting a full clear from behind is the worst option available. You fail to clear, your own board falls, and you lose on stars and on power.
Roles by strength tier
Morale chip duty. Throw them at targets they cannot beat solo and grind −10/−5%p per hit. Losing is not wasted.
Hunt targets slightly weaker than you and close them out. Reaching upward burns attempts for nothing.
Finish softened heavyweights and hold the HQ stronghold.
Tip: Use markers to publish an attack order per stronghold, and split the roster into numbered teams with assigned targets so attacks don't scatter.
🎲 Outcomes swing wildly
Ton's own measurements, between similarly powered marches:
- One fight won with 10–15% of his troops left
- Another lost with the enemy holding 60%+ of theirs
That is a ~75-point spread at the same power level. With this many hero skills interacting, the variance is far higher than Labyran or IWL.
Practical read — a target you "think" you beat is a coin flip. Send attacks at fights you are sure of, and hand the marginal ones to the morale-chip crew.
🏹 Ratios and heroes no event-specific ratio exists
Whatever performs in Labyran, Gaia's Heart, Land of the Brave and IWL performs here.
Gen 3 – 5
| March | Ratio (inf/lancer/marks) | Heroes |
|---|---|---|
| March 1 | 50 / 20 / 30 | your best three |
| March 2 | 50 / 20 / 30 | next best three |
- Variants: 60/10/30 · 45/10/45 — go with whatever your own testing favours
- Avoid: blue (rare) heroes and anything without a combat Expedition skill. Epics run one utility + one combat skill and lose out once you have legendaries
- Favour: Zinman, Alonso, Greg — skills that buff all troop types
Gen 5 and up — marksman ratio + lancer ratio ⚠️ questioned on Day 2
| March | Ratio | Heroes | Gear needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 1 marksman ratio | 48 / 4 / 48 | best marksman + best infantry + Mia | Primary set on the infantry and marksman heroes |
| March 2 lancer ratio | 60 / 40 / 0 | best lancer + second infantry + an all-troop-buff marksman hero | Second infantry set + primary lancer set the marksman hero needs no gear |
Why this pairing — the two marches never compete for gear. With zero marksman troops in a lancer ratio there is no reason to gear that hero at all. It squeezes full value from a limited number of maxed sets.
⚠️ Day-2 caveat — a question mark over 60/40
Reviewing a handful of live battle reports, Ton found the 60/40 lancer ratio performing worse than expected and flagged it. His own reports are unusable — he registered his marksman march with his second-string gear by mistake. Needs re-testing next cycle.
Marksman hero priority for the 60/40 march
| # | Hero | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley (G7) | all three skills buff every troop type |
| 2 | Greg (G3) | same — all-troop buffs |
| 3 | Alonso (G2) | same — all-troop buffs |
| 4 | Zinman (G1) | fallback |
A "marksman attack +x%" skill does nothing with zero marksman troops on the field.
Whales — 50/20/30 on both marches may be better. Ton sees that style appearing around Gen 15–16; at Gen 11–12 the Mia/Molly marksman ratio and the Bradley lancer ratio still win.
Testing ratios — the free bounty loop
Find a bounty monster out on the map.
Send the march you want to measure.
Lose, and the returning march refunds its stamina → loop it for free.
As shown above, a single result tells you nothing.
Gaia's Heart, Land of the Brave, Labyran, IWL. During the event, sparring attacks work too.
🔧 What applies and what doesn't
❌ Does NOT apply
- Hero exclusive gear (widget) skills — the text at the bottom of the widget card
- Territory bonuses
- State position / President skills — titles included
- City bonuses — gem-bought +10% / +20% attack and friends
- Frostdragon Tyrant buffs
- Combat buff items
✅ Does apply
- Flat widget stats — health and lethality pass through
- Pet skills — auto-activated
- Hero skills — the Expedition set
- Hero gear, charms, chief gear, troop research — frozen at the end of Preparation
📌 The snapshot is taken at the end of Preparation — Thursday 24:00 UTC
Not the moment you press register. Up to the lock you can keep swapping gear, heroes and troops; after it, nothing you change counts.
Ton himself lost a whole week to gear left on the wrong hero at lock time. Check once at registration, and again on Thursday.
🧭 R4/R5 — building the lanes
- Each stronghold is auto-sorted by power in Manage Squads
- Pile 31+ into one and the overflow is benched → it is common to find someone strong sitting out while a weaker squad plays elsewhere. Sweep the list right after registration closes
- Batch adjust moves several at once — same as Championship lane building
- Invite from "members not ready", but chase only the people who'd land in the top 60
- Allocation rule (settled on Day 2): HQ stars are worth 3×, so put your very best in the HQ. But since the enemy only needs one front stronghold to reach it, gutting any single front lane just hands them the doorway
Practical trick — dump everyone into one stronghold first, then deal them out left → right → centre in power-matched groups.
📊 Using the battle reports
- Each stronghold's battle record shows both attack and defence reports — who fought with what ratio and how it went
- There are separate sparring attacks — use them for ratio testing
- ⚠️ Reports appear to be kept for only ~9 hours. The cutoff is by time, not by count → review them live during the battle if you want the data
What to look for: the ratio used (48/4/48 or 60/40) · whether gear was actually equipped · what the morale % was — it changes how you read a win or loss.
⚠️ Known problem — matchmaking imbalance
Ton flagged "some people have been very unfairly matched" on both days.
| # | Structural cause |
|---|---|
| ① | The matching key and the deciding factor are different axes. The official rule groups by server progress then pairs on similar Star Rating — but Star Rating is a cumulative record (+1 win / −1 loss), not power. On the first cycle everyone started level, making it effectively random within a group |
| ② | The 2nd win check is raw power, so the gap becomes the result |
| ③ | One unkillable squad makes a clear impossible |
| ④ | 40% more attacks than hearts makes clearing easy → the star race never happens |
| ⑤ | Byes — an odd group size decides a result with no battle at all |
Ton's outlook — Alliance Showdown matchmaking was also terrible at launch; he expects this to settle as Star Ratings accumulate. But it runs monthly, so sorting will take months — and until then it keeps pushing players toward "just join the strongest alliance."
✅ Personal checklist
- Confirm your alliance is in the state's top 20
- Check the Tuesday matchmaking result → decide ahead or behind
- Before the Thursday lock, move gear onto the right hero in each march
- Register both marches
- Left and rejoined the alliance? Verify you are still registered
- Everything finalised before Thursday 24:00 UTC
- Friday: scout ×2 mission
- Saturday: start early — regeneration ends in the first 14 hours, so a late start throws attempts away
- Saturday: spend all 20 attempts (10 per march)
- Use sparring to confirm your ratio before picking real targets
Source: Ton (TontonYouTube) — Day 1 "registration & ratios" (2026-08-20) + Day 2 "battle phase & win conditions" (2026-08-22) · cross-checked against the official Winter Siege help centre section
Compiled 2026-08-22 · ⚠️ provisional, first cycle (win conditions have already been changed once by hotfix)